Trump isn’t talking about keeping a big promise for the abortion campaign

When Donald Trump ran for president in 2016, he promised to appoint Supreme Court justices who were certain they would overturn Roe v. Wade. And he did just that.

More than anyone else in Republican politics, Trump reshaped the court such that it was inevitable that the landmark abortion rights ruling would fall. However, the former president, always eager to tout his every achievement, was uncharacteristically quiet about his decisive role.

His silence may be evidence of his changing political fortunes and the extent of his control over the party. In 2016, Trump faced a sprawling primary field and skepticism about whether he was against abortion. He needed to reassure skeptical Republican voters that he would be a reliable ally.

But looking at the 2024 Republican primaries, Trump is a much more powerful candidate. The survey appears comfortably to him above potential field. If he decides to run again, he will probably win. So he no longer needed to prosecute the anti-abortion voters who had already seen him deliver. They are locked up.

“I don’t think the Supreme Court decision will be the deciding factor for people who support Trump in the primaries if he chooses to run,” said Corey Lewandowski, the former president’s former campaign manager and longtime confidant of Trump. “What we will see is that if Donald Trump runs again, he will be the Republican nominee.”

Most important to Trump are the general election voters — especially the suburban women who gave him up for Joe Biden in 2020. Most don’t want an anti-abortion warrior in the West Wing. modern one survey It found that 57 percent of women wanted to support RO, compared to 50 percent of men. That might explain Trump’s reticence: There’s no need to remind moderate voters that he helped extract a constitutional right they hoped would last.

Other potential GOP candidates are in an even precarious position. The most important thing on their minds is winning over the powerful conservative activists in the primaries. That means boosting their anti-abortion bonuses — at Trump’s expense if necessary.

Mike Pence, who was Trump’s vice president, made a tacit discrimination with his former boss when he recently spoke to reporters in South Carolina. Pence said he was involved in “The reason for the right to life throughout my adult life.” Not so for Trump. In 1999, when Trump was 53 years old, he appeared on NBC’s “Meet the Press” and said he was “very pro-choice.”

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, an evangelical Christian preparing to run for president, chirp That if Roe was overturned, those who exploited the case for “political gain” might “abandon our principles.” It’s not clear if Pompeo is suggesting that Trump might swing by once Roe is dropped and states regain their power to ban abortion entirely. No names mentioned. But Pompeo’s message was clear: He is a true believer who can be trusted to stop cold abortion, while others cannot.

Abortion numbers will be an issue in the 2024 Republican primary that will test the field in new ways. For decades, there has been a huge incentive for candidates to embrace the party’s dogma and say they oppose legal abortion and want to overthrow Roe. Just 38 percent Both Republicans and those leaning toward the Republican Party believe that abortion should be legal in all or most cases. (For Democrats, the figure is 80 percent.) Now that the court prepares to overturn Roe, the candidates will face a tough set of questions about how to balance a woman’s health and safety with the viability of a fetus.

Do they support preventing abortion after six weeks Texas Did – a point where a woman may not know she is pregnant? Should a woman who has miscarried in violation of state law be criminally punished? A Louisiana House of Representatives committee recently passed a bill that described abortion as “murder,” and would potentially subject women to a murder charge if they became pregnant.

Scott Walker, the former Republican governor of Wisconsin, said many candidates who say they oppose abortion rights have never dealt with the complexities of the issue. “You’ll see some people proclaiming they are pro-life flipping all over the place,” he told NBC News. “there will be [voters] Who wants the real deal: someone who can passionately defend this position.”

Trump stumbled on the abortion issue in 2016, when he said in an interview that “there should be some form of punishment” for women who undergo abortion after it was banned. He later retracted that comment, after drawing a rebuke from one of his main GOP rivals at the time, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, who said Trump had not “seriously thought about these issues.”

What is clear is that many potential presidential candidates will embrace an anti-abortion platform to Trump’s right. Two of them, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, have signed bills banning abortion that do not exclude rape and incest.

When Pompeo served as a Republican congressman from Kansas, he told an interviewer that he opposed abortion in cases where the mother was raped He claimed that “this child – whatever he imagines – is life”.

This is not Trump’s position. He said he would support abortion in cases of rape, incest and when the mother’s life was in danger. Trump made those exceptions in 2019, within days of Alabama enacting a strict law banning abortion in every case unless the mother’s life was in danger. Trump did not mention Alabama by name, but the timing suggests it runs counter to the state’s hard-line stance.

Pence has consistently opposed abortion rights, although he has been reluctant to specify which exceptions should apply. In response to a survey from Indiana Right to Life in 2010, Pence, at the time as a member of Congress, stated that abortion should never be legal. Run for governor in 2012, He answered the questionnaire by saying that abortion should only be legal to protect the life of the mother. Asked about Pence’s belief today, one of his aides told NBC News that the former vice president supports three exceptions: rape, incest and maternal life.

This position mirrors that of Trump. However, some conservatives believe Pence, an evangelical Christian, is a better bet to pursue policies that ban abortion altogether.

“I have no doubt that Mike Pence – with his pro-life stance, pro-family stance – was speaking in Mr. Trump’s ear and saying, ‘We have to be pro-life,'” said Mark Smith, president of Columbia International University in South Carolina, where he delivered Pence recently gave his inaugural address.(Pence is no longer in Trump’s ear; the two had a falling out when Pence challenged Trump to endorse Biden’s 2020 win.)

If the Supreme Court’s draft opinion holds up, it will be one of the most important rulings in history, and one that would bear the indelible mark of Trump. Three of the judges who signed the majority opinion are likely to have nominated them. This wouldn’t necessarily bode well for Trump in the general election, given the level of national support Rowe holds against Wade. But none of his rivals in the Republican primary can claim to have delivered on a far-reaching campaign promise.

“President Trump benefits from keeping his promise,” John McLaughlin, a Trump pollster, told NBC News. When he first started running for president, many people were skeptical when he said he was pro-life. Now he’s proven them wrong and he’s got support from a lot of skeptics.”

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